The Forge crafting chances tell you which weapon or armor category your ore count is likely to produce, but that percentage is only the first roll. This guide shows how to read category odds, separate them from the item variation roll, and protect your materials with a repeatable test before you forge.
Forge Chances are visible probabilities for the broad weapon or armor category that your current total ore count can produce. A small count favors lighter or smaller categories, while adding ore generally moves the distribution toward larger weapons and heavier armor. The percentage changes when you add or remove ore, so it is a planning signal rather than a permanent recipe rule.
The result is layered. First the game rolls a category, such as Dagger, Katana, or Heavy Chest. It then rolls a variation inside that category, and the forging minigames affect the finished quality. A 70% category chance is not a 70% chance for one named weapon. Treat public tables as community-tested reference points, compare the current display in the calculator, and retest after updates.
Keep three decisions separate when you read the chance panel: total count, ore quality, and trait direction. Mixing them together is the fastest way to spend a premium ore on the wrong target.
The number of ores in the crucible is the main lever for category odds. A three-ore test may strongly favor a Dagger or Light Helmet, while a much larger count opens more weight or size categories. Adding the same ore type still changes the total count, so do not look only at the number of different ore names.
Ore multipliers affect the strength ceiling of the finished item. They do not turn a low-count mix into a heavy weapon by themselves. Use a high-multiplier ore to improve the item you are already targeting, then check whether low-value filler has diluted the average.
A Weapon, Armor, All, or no-trait plan answers what the item should do. A trait can be valuable at a meaningful share, but it cannot replace a correct category target. Compare a trait mix with a clean fallback so the chance panel remains useful instead of becoming a rare-ore gamble.
These counts are practical reference points gathered from public community guides and the site's planning data. They are not an official guarantee. Use the current in-game panel or calculator because category weights, unlocks, and balance values can change.
| Category example | Role | Minimum count | Safer test count | Decision note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Dagger |
Small weapon | Appears from the lowest weapon count range. | Cheap baseline tests | Use three ores to establish a baseline before adding cost. |
 Straight Sword |
Early weapon | Needs more count than a Dagger and competes with nearby categories. | Early weapon progression | Compare the visible split instead of assuming a minimum is optimal. |
 Katana |
Mid-size weapon | The chance rises as the total moves into the mid range. | Targeted weapon tests | Hold the ore type mix steady while testing count changes. |
 Great Sword |
Large weapon | A higher count shifts the roll toward a larger class. | Damage-focused builds | Check multiplier and attack speed trade-offs before committing. |
 Light Chest |
Light armor | Chest pieces need more count than light helmets. | Early armor checks | Do not compare an armor count with a weapon count directly. |
 Heavy Chest |
Heavy armor | High counts make heavier armor categories more competitive. | Defensive targets | Keep a lighter fallback when the cost of a high count is too steep. |
A chance panel answers a sequence of questions, not one yes-or-no question. Reading the layers in order helps you set realistic expectations and explains why a named weapon can remain uncommon even when its parent category looks strong.
The game first chooses a broad class such as Dagger, Katana, Great Sword, Light Chest, or Heavy Chest. The visible percentage is useful here because it shows how your total count is biasing the result. It still allows an unlucky roll.
After a category is selected, the game can choose among the named items inside it. If a category has several variations, the named item chance is lower than the category chance. This is why a 60% Katana category does not mean a 60% chance of one specific Katana.
The forging minigames affect quality after the item type is selected. Practice them with cheap materials, then aim for consistent timing on an expensive attempt. A clean minigame run improves the item you roll; it does not change the category distribution.
Use this sequence when you want to move from a community table to a craft you can justify. It keeps the target, count, material cost, and update context visible at every step.
A high percentage is a reason to test, not a promise to forge repeatedly. Set a stop point before you spend rare ore: for example, keep the fallback if the category chance does not improve enough to justify the extra count. This makes the calculator and the in-game panel work together.
Test this plan in the calculator
The examples below describe decisions, not guaranteed outcomes. Replace the counts with the current values shown by the game and keep the target category fixed while you compare.
You want to understand a new ore mix, so you begin with three replaceable ores. The result may heavily favor a small weapon or light armor category. That is useful information: it gives you a clean reference before you add expensive material or chase a larger class.
Your panel shows a split between Katana and Great Sword. Keep the ore types and area unchanged, then add one or two pieces and record how the split moves. If the category chance improves but the multiplier collapses, the extra count may not be worth the cost.
A Heavy Chest target needs a large count, so you compare the high-count plan with a Medium Chest fallback. This protects the run when your inventory cannot support repeated heavy attempts. Check defensive traits separately instead of hiding them inside the category decision.
Run the same baseline after a patch. If its displayed chances differ, treat older tables as historical context and rebuild your expensive mix. A dated community percentage can still explain the system, but it should not be presented as a live guarantee.
Use this page to interpret the chance display, then open the narrower page that matches your next decision.
They are visible probabilities for broad weapon or armor categories based mainly on your total ore count and current mix. They guide a roll; they do not guarantee a named item.
No. More ore generally shifts the distribution toward larger or heavier categories, but the roll remains random. Check the current percentage and keep a fallback plan.
A category can contain several variations. The game first rolls the category and then selects one variation inside it, so a specific weapon receives only part of the category probability.
Ore count is the main category lever, while multipliers mainly affect the strength ceiling. A stronger ore does not automatically make a low-count mix produce a heavy class.
Traits can support a weapon or armor plan when their share is meaningful, but they do not remove category variance. Compare the trait mix with a non-trait fallback.
Use it to understand the mechanic, then verify the current in-game panel or calculator. Updates can change weights, unlocks, and available variations, so date-sensitive numbers should not be treated as permanent.
This guide combines the site's local planning data with public community references. The external pages explain the shared mechanic, while the calculator and game display remain the safer place to verify current values.
Choose one category, compare one variable at a time, and keep a fallback before you spend a rare ore. The visible chance is most useful when it supports a clear budget decision.